Overview on Canada's Stance on Immigration, Politics, and Transgender Rights

So if you are possibly looking to immigrate like I am, this blog helps get you up to speed on what the current political landscape for Canada looks like and see if immigrating is right for you.

Photo Credit: Christopher Austin on Unsplash

Hey everyone! It's been a while since my last blog and I do apologize, my time has been mostly spent on a huge project at my primary job, but the good news is that it was an immediate success and built a lot of great content for my work portfolio. Now that I have a bit of a chance to rest and get back into a normal cadence of work and ridesharing, I think I can now stay focused on my goals toward immigration and continue to share my story with all of you.

Last time, I pivoted to address the need to be prepared to get out of the country at any cost by preparing a go-bag, which I knew was going to be jarring for many of you to read. I’ve now prepared mine and it sits in a corner, where if all goes well, it will never be used. I am terrified that that I had to make one, but things are getting ugly in the U.S. and despite a lot of good news in the courts blocking a lot of Trump’s EO’s, we are far from being out of the woods. Even after such a successful work week last week, and feeling appreciated by my peers, I am really struggling to feel if I belong here, even in California.

So now it’s time to get back on track. This blog is going to give a huge summary to the current state of Canada and what political and economic factors are currently happening that impact immigration and trans rights in general. A lot of us in the U.S. really don’t know what’s going on abroad, aside from Trump throwing around tariffs in a tantrum and wanting to annex Canada as the “51^st state.” Now I am not from Canada, but I've been trying to immigrate there. So, a lot of this is just my perspective of all the news that I've been picking up over the last few months.

Immigration and why it will be harder in 2025

Okay so let's first talk about immigration. In years prior, Canada has been one of the easiest countries to immigrate to in the past. However, things are quickly going to become tougher starting in 2025 and beyond. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada has always relied on immigrants to help supplement population growth. Without it, Canada’s population would likely have decreased over the years. Now when the pandemic hit, Canada literally hit the brakes on immigration to help stop of the spread of the virus, like many other countries did to protect their borders. However, once the pandemic started to wane, Canada realized it was in a labor crisis and had a need for fresh skilled workers as soon as possible. So, the gates were swung wide open.

This worked for a few years, but the rapid intake of new permanent residents and temporary workers quickly overwhelmed Canada’s economy, notably in housing, food consumption, and health care. This started to cascade, and the economy has been dealing with inflation since. Most political parties and the general population have mostly blamed the increased amounts of immigration for it. So, in November 2024, now-departing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made the decision to cap permanent residency intake starting in 2025. Capping at around 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025 and will be reducing the number invited each year following for the next two years to as low as 365,000 per year. They will even be sending thousands of temporary workers home in the years ahead. This low intake of new immigrants will likely stay this way until Canada’s economic support structures can be in a position to welcome new immigrants.

This makes immigrating as a permanent resident in 2025 and beyond more challenging than ever unless you are in a career field that is in extremely high demand such as health care. For me, this does leave my chances at a significant disadvantage, as being a video game community manager and graphic designer really doesn’t give me any bonus credit to my immigration scores. In my opinion, you have the best chance if you have at least a Bachelor’s Degree and be under 40 or have certifiable skills in something Canada really needs to be an attractive candidate for immigration. Even I don’t meet these thresholds and I am having to jump through hoops.

A Divided Parliament

While not on the extreme level as that of the United States, Canada’s Parliament is looking pretty divided. For nearly ten years now, Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party have been the leading party for Canada’s Parliament, though since 2019 they have been a minority party, meaning even though they have a plurality of seats in the house, they don’t have the majority. Having a minority government means they have to rely on support from other political parties to effectively pass new legislation.

Right now, there are five political parties, the Liberals, the Conservatives, the New Democratic Party (NDP), Bloc Québécois, and the Green Party of Canada. Green Party only has a couple of seats in Parliament, and the small Bloc Québécois is for the most part solely focused toward shaping legislation that would enable the providence of Quebec to secede from the rest of Canada, so neither of these parties really play too much into the left-right balance of Canadian politics. The best way to look at the remaining three is compare the Conservatives to what I would like to call “pre-Trump” Republicans though they are the most right-wing federal party. The reason why I say “pre-Trump” is that I don’t see them demonstrating the same do-or-die approach as American’s conservatives are currently doing (Canadians, if I am wrong, then please send me details). Most of them however are definitely not allies to the trans community. Liberals basically are the equivalents of Democrats in the U.S. who have centrist to left-leaning socialist views, while the NDP is very progressive and far left (think Bernie Sanders).

Here’s the dig, with Canada’s inflating economy, housing crisis, and health care systems overloading for months now, both the conservatives and the NDP are wanting to call for a motion of no confidence to the current government. If both of those parties all voted for it, the Liberal government would “fall” and snap federal elections for all of the seats of Parliament would be triggered. The party who wins a plurality of seats would form the next Canadian government. Until recently, the conservatives have been surging in the polls, and it would have been likely that they would have easily taken over should there have been a no vote of confidence. This would enable Pierre Poilievre to take over as Prime Minister, which would be trouble for trans persons domestically and abroad. Even then scheduled elections happen anyways this year (2025) in October. Even the NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh has declared his party would call for a vote to bring down government, given their dissatisfaction with the Liberal Party.

Justin Trudeau Resigns

Despite trying to appease other parties and the general population with cuts to immigrant intake and softening the economy by lifting the general sales tax for holiday shopping over the month of December, there have been mounting calls from all fronts including from within the Liberal Party for Justin Trudeau to resign. While Trudeau has been credited for leading Canada through the chaotic years of the first Trump administration and handling the crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic, he’s been criticized for bungling the economy and trying to push through liberal policies that for many seem to not prioritize Canada’s needs as a nation in the years following. After the resignation of his former finance minister Chrystia Freeland in December, faith in his leadership has since plummeted in the weeks following.

So, this January, Trudeau announced that he would prorogue (pause) Parliament and would resign as Prime Minister as soon as the party elects a new leader. A new leader is expected to be elected in early March, but opposing parties are still threatening to bring down the government as early as late March when Parliament resumes. While all of this is happening, Trump comes to power and immediately does the unthinkable to Canada.

Canada Unites Against Trump

Trump claiming that the northern border is out of control with the illegal importing of illicit fentanyl drugs and undocumented immigrants declares an emergency to threaten Canada with 25% tariffs on Canadian imports. The threat of the tariffs was front and center for Canada’s political parties since the U.S. election and continues to be as the liberals elect a new leader and face possible snap elections as early as March. However, when Trump make the order in early February to slap on 25% tariffs for all Canadian imports except for energy which was reduced to 10%, the response from Canada as a whole has been resounding.

Almost immediately Justin Trudeau issues counter-tariffs were issued targeting key U.S. exports like produce, appliances, and American beer and bourbon, and the rest of the country has so far been supportive of the decision. There have also been drastic movements to stop buying American products and promote Canadian ones. Instead of Kraft cheese slices, Black Diamond is now a go-to brand. No longer brushing teeth with Colgate or washing with Dove, Canadians are counting on Green Beaver to help get cleaned up. Finally, skipping on Starbucks, Canadians are more than ever taking to go the iconic red cup of Tim Hortons coffee (and pouring the coffee into a mug for reasons I yet to understand).

There are now plans both on the provincial and national scale to diversify Canada’s trading worldwide, and to improve Canada’s self-reliance in its own products. Like in most other places in the world Tesla is tanking in sales and some owners are trying to get rid of their existing vehicles after seeing the offensive salute given by Elon Musk. Is this resounding boycott in American products working? For now, yes. The initial 25% tariffs by Trump were called off for a month, but since then tariffs on steel and aluminum worldwide are now levied. This has further angered Canada and the rest of the world. Even if those are reversed, this aggressive trade war that Trump is bringing on everyone is permanently damaging the once-strong relationship the U.S. once had with Canada.

This has also impacted the Canadian Conservatives lead in the polls, as recent efforts have begun to swing back in favor of the Liberals though there is a lot of ground for that party to still make up. Pierre Poilievre and other conservative leaders are now scrambling to distance themselves from the relationship they had with Trump and trying to poise themselves as being able to stand up to Trump’s tariff and annexation threats. However, the Liberal’s threats still stand that snap elections might be called as soon as Parliament reconvenes.

Could Canada become the 51^st state?

For weeks now, Trump has been floating the idea on his social platform to annex Canada and make it a state. This is because Trump and his administration feels the resources and minerals that Canada produces is too valuable to just be imported, and the U.S. shouldn’t be having to be effectively supporting Canada’s economy through a trade deficit. A lot of this is why Trump is tossing around tariffs like mud and destroying the relationship what was a strong partner in the free world. While the threat is something not to be ignored, the reality of Canada losing its sovereignty is extremely unlikely because Canada will resist.

The more real threat is how badly does Trump effectively drive away Canada and other allies in his attempts at growing American autonomy and how bad does it drive down the economy in both countries. Tariffs slow down trade, and when that happens, the economy slows down and that can result in the loss of jobs on both sides of the border. However, Canada is already working to address this threat quickly and within years, could become a more dominant global trading partner that would eventually hurt America’s standing in the world.

What to Watch in the Weeks Ahead

Okay, so that was a lot to go over on what has happened, but what do we need to watch for? Well first we need to see how any tariff or trade threats from Trump continue to impact Canada. Right now, Trump doesn’t seem to care what state Canada is in. The more Trump makes threats or make good on his threats, the more he will alienate Canada and other world allies.

Why would that affect a trans person like me trying to immigrate? Well trade wars like this are going to make things expensive for Canada, and that can aggravate the current problems Canada has with immigration already. The more relationships get strained between the U.S. and Canada, the more likely it will be unwelcoming for anyone in the U.S. to immigrate. I am also not certain how likely Canada would consider welcoming American asylum seekers should U.S. policy begins to persecute trans individuals (which as mentioned in my previous blog, is a realistic possibility).

The Liberal Party elections will also be something to watch out for. With five major candidates in the running still, the party seems to be falling behind the centrist leaning, economy focused banker Mark Carney, whose goals are mostly to rollback a lot of the taxes that Trudeau’s government put in place in exchange for a more incentive based approach for things like Canada’s carbon tax. If elected, there are projections the liberals could hold onto the party plurality in Parliament though it is way too close to call. Other contenders like former finance minister Chrystia Freeland would likely push opposing parties into successfully toppling the government.

Why do I feel it would be more favorable for liberals to hold onto control of Parliament? Well, like their Republican counterparts, the Canadian Conservative party has demonstrated a distain for transgender rights. The current leader, Pierre Poilievre, has even made strong comments supporting the idea of a Canadian federal bathroom ban, banning the use of puberty blockers for trans youth, and banning trans athletes in sports. However, to the best of my knowledge, the conservatives in Canada haven’t campaigned or driven on this issue unlike what we see with the Republicans in the U.S. these days. Another problem is that the Conservatives have also signaled they would further increase the restrictions to bringing in new immigrants much faster than the current plan in motion. Doing so could make immigrating to Canada as a permanent resident nearly impossible for most.

The Important Thing to Remember

Despite all of the political and economic turmoil in Canada and the United States, its important to note Canada does have one significant advantage, which is a lot of human rights guaranteed by law. With the passing of Bill C-16 in 2017, Canada includes gender expression as a protected right and prevents discrimination against individuals regardless of the gender identity. Of course, how laws work and what they cover is going to be a mess, and many parts of Canada definitely has its own problems when it comes to treating trans persons with equality and respect.

This is why even if conservatives take power in Canada, I am still strongly considering on immigrating to this country. Canada is not perfect and honestly, I think Canada is going to be in for a rough time regardless of how their politics play out in the months ahead. Even if snap elections are not called, they still have to run full elections in October anyways. Also based on everything I have seen from Canada in the months I have spent planning immigration, they actually talk and listen to an extent, and if it comes down to it, everyone works togethers to do what’s best for their country.

Looking Ahead

I hope this blog gives a good perspective into the political theatre of Canada, and why things will be just as challenging for them as they are for anyone in America in the months and years ahead. For myself, these are things I am watching closely to see if my immigration goals break at any time, and I find myself unable to go anywhere safer than where I am already. This past week at my work has also really shaken me into taking a hard look at my goals, which I will be covering next week.

With this in mind, this Substack is no longer going to be about just me trying to immigrate but showing what I am doing to survive and exist and help others to do the same. The new U.S. federal administration spent thousands of dollars, weeks of time, and unlimited amounts of energy in an effort to shut down Trans existence, and so far, its proving to be a futile attempt. Our existence is a powerful resistance to their fascist designs, and no matter what happens, they cannot destroy the beautiful spectrum that is gender.

So, I have plans to revamp the branding and subject matter of this blog series to not only help others through my experience with exploring immigration, but to show what I can do to help others exist and survive no matter their path. I am not quitting my plans to immigrate, but I am diversifying my plans for existence. I look forward to sharing details in the weeks to come. Thanks for reading and if you like the content and want to see more of it, please consider signing up as a free subscriber. If you want to help me in my journey, paid subscribers will soon be treated to fun content like videos, photos, and lifestyle tips I am learning as I approach immigration.

Sources:

This is a news-sourced heavy blog post, and I want to be transparent with how I am collecting news and information. When it comes to finding long-standing factual information, I try to turn to government resources like the Government of Canada or non-profit agencies like Amnesty International. For news, I am focused on pulling from public-based news organizations like CBC, NPR, and PBS or independent journalists from Substack as these tend to be the most non-partisan sources I can feel good about. If there is something I claimed, that you feel I did not accurately source, then please let me know and I will try to source it from where I heard it.

• Why Canada’s changing its immigration system – Justin Trudeau’s YouTube Channel – Nov. 17, 2025

• Read Chrystia Freeland's letter of resignation from Trudeau's cabinet – CBC News – Dec. 16, 2024

• Trudeau quiet on his future as NDP vows to topple government – CBC News – Dec. 20, 2024

• Singh says he will bring down government in March but wants to pass Trump tariff relief first - John Paul Tasker of CBC News – Jan. 30, 2025

• Poll Tracker – CBC News Interactive

• Trudeau says he's not the right choice to lead party in next election, promises to resign as PM – Catharine Tunney of CBC News – Jan. 6, 2025

• Trump imposes tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China – CBC News - Feb. 1, 2025

• Trudeau hits back at the U.S. with big tariffs after Trump launches a trade war – John Paul Tasker of CBC News – Feb. 1, 2025

• Trump promises 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports — including from Canada - Benjamin Lopez Steven of CBC News – Feb. 9, 2025

• Projection Update: Gap keeps tightening as Conservatives drop below 200 seats – Éric Grenier of The Writ | Substack – Feb. 17, 2025

• Liberals will soon pick the next prime minister. Here's what candidates are promising – Catharine Tunney of CBC News – Feb. 14, 2025

• Pierre Poilievre’s comments about trans women ‘a dangerous distraction,’ Amnesty International Canada says – Amnesty International – Feb. 23, 2024

• Tariff threats are already driving investment out of Canada – Peter Armstrong of CBC News – Feb. 16, 2025

• Canada: Human rights protections extended to trans people – Amnesty International – Jun. 15, 2017

• Legal instruments of gender equality – Government of Canada